Ocean freight continues to decline! Forecast of global shipping and logistics industry in difficult times

2022-11-29 329

According to the latest data of Drury World Container Index, the spot freight rate of Shanghai-Rotterdam route is US $2,192/FEU, with a weekly drop of 18%, which is the biggest drop in recent two months.Compared with January this year, the spot freight rate of Asia-Europe routes decreased by 84%, and only increased by 32% compared with the same period in 2019.

According to the latest Shanghai EXP Container Comprehensive Freight Index report released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on November 25, Shanghai Port went to the European base port marketThe freight rate (ocean freight and shipping surcharge) is1100US dollar/TEU, down 6.1% compared with the previous period.%.The Mediterranean route market is basically synchronized with the European route, and the booking price in the spot market continues to fall.The freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base port and EXP was US $1842/TEU, down 6.4% weekly.

The report said business activity continued to contract as consumers cut back on spending and demand continued to decline.European economies are also facing the impact of soaring energy prices and supply chain disruption, and the economic prospects are not optimistic.

In addition, on the North American route, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to base port EXP in the United States is 1496 US dollars/FEU, down 4% weekly;To the eastern United States, it was $3,687/FEU, down 4.9% every week.The freight rate of the Persian Gulf route was US $1,250/TEU, down 10.3% from the previous period;The freight rate of Australia-New Zealand route was US $613/TEU, down 23.6% from the previous period;The freight rate of South American route was USD 2,276/TEU, down 11.6% from the previous period.

According to another report, Amazon also launched the largest layoff plan in history a week ago, which will lay off about 10,000 people.Its layoffs will focus largely on its equipment and retail operations, but it has also recently downsized its logistics division, closing or delaying construction of more than 60 warehouses.

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Xeneta, another analytics firm, the sea and air freight rate benchmark platform, also reported that the sea and air freight market will face an "extremely challenging 2023".

"The cost of living crisis is weakening consumers' purchasing power, leading to a drop in demand for imported goods from Container," said Patrik Berglund, chief executive of Xeneta. The company predicts that the shipping volume may drop by 2.5% next year.Meanwhile, shipping companies are taking over new ship capacity, meaning excess capacity could become a problem after a long period of capacity shortages and bottlenecks.

Xeneta said that the decline in sea volume and freight rate may also affect the air cargo market, because operators may shift some shipping demand from air to sea."This will have a significant impact on the air transport market because obviously there is much less freight," Berglund said.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the volume of air cargo in September this year decreased by 10.6% compared with the same period last year.

Transport Intelligence stressed that the duration of the recession is unclear, but companies with flexible business models will undoubtedly do better.

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