The last week has finally stopped falling? Container's transportation market is still uncertain

After falling for 27 consecutive weeks, Container freight rates finally stopped falling in the last week of 2022.

According to the latest data released by Shanghai Airlines Exchange on December 30th, Shanghai EXP Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 0.46 points to 1107.55 points last week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%.It's all up.In December, the monthly decline of SCFI index converged to 9.95%.

Last week, the freight rate per TEU of the Far East-Europe route increased by US $29 to US $1,078, an increase of 2.76%.The freight rate per TEU of Far East-Mediterranean route decreased by US $46 to US $1,850, a decrease of 2.43%.The freight rate per FEU of the Far East-Western US route increased by US $5 to US $1,423, an increase of 0.35%.The freight rate per FEU of the Far East-US East route decreased by US $29 to US $3,067, a decrease of 0.94%.

The freight rate of South America Line (Santos) was US $1,433/TEU, down 137 yuan or 8.73% per week.The freight rate of Southeast Asia Line (Singapore) is US $188/TEU, down US $1 or 0.53% per week.The freight rate per TEU of Kansai and Kanto routes in Japan is the same as that of the previous week.The freight rate per TEU of Korean routes increased by $13 to $238.

It is understood that the SCFI index fluctuates between 800 and 1100 points in 2018-2019. Since 2020, affected by the epidemic, Hong Kong has been short of jobs and congested, resulting in chaos in the global supply chain.The SCFI index has been rising all the way, reaching a record high of 5,109 points in the first quarter of 2022.However, since the second half of 2022, the freight rate has dropped for six consecutive months, indicating that the era of epidemic dividend has ended.

Compared with the historical high in early 2022, the SCFI index has dropped by more than 78% this year, and the US West Line and European Line have dropped by more than 82% and 86% respectively.

Insiders pointed out that although freight rates began to show signs of stabilization, they did not rule out a callback.Many Container shipping companies have begun to rush to dump containers for the off-season after the holiday.It can't be ruled out that the freight rate will fluctuate again in late January, 2023. At that time, it is necessary to observe whether the container transportation enterprises will increase cabin control to stabilize the freight rate or grab goods on dips.

Looking ahead, due to the high market uncertainty, the market is uncertain in the first half of 2023, and many Container shipping companies expect the first quarter to be relatively light.Due to the adjustment of economic policies, demand will gradually improve in the second quarter, and prices are expected to rebound in the third quarter.

Secondly, the global capacity supply and demand will be affected by IMO's new environmental protection regulations in 2023.At present, the global economy is expected to maintain positive growth.Although the supply and delivery of new ships increased by 8.2%, it is estimated that two new carbon emission regulations at the beginning of the year may be absorbed.10% of the shipping space, so the increase in actual supply may not be as serious as that in intended.

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