U.S. merchandise trade deficit surges in January 2025: corporate "rushing" and growth concerns on the eve of tariffs

1. Data quick overview: The deficit soared 25.6% to a record

• Size of deficit: January merchandise trade deficit jumped to$153.3 billion(25.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion)
• Imports surge: Imports of goods soared 11.9% to$325.4 billion(Enterprises rush to stock up before tariffs take effect)
• EXP weakness: EXP only slightly increased by 2.0% to$172.2 billion(The growth of major categories such as steel and agricultural products has stagnated)

2. Tariff countdown: the "survival" import tide of enterprises

1. Motivation to run：

   • Trump announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada on March 4, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods (up to 20% cumulatively)
   • Imports of sensitive categories such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles have surged (companies lock in low-cost inventory in advance)

2. INDUSTRY：

   • Wal-Mart, Tesla and other US companies urgently expand Asian supply chain procurement (to avoid North American tariff risks)
   • Chinese companies to the United States and EXP accelerate the layout of "Mexican re-export" (using USMCA rules to detour)

3. Economic shock: trade has changed from "growth engine" to "drag item"

• GDP Drag Risk: Trade drove economic growth by 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but the soaring deficit in January may cause the growth rate in Q1 2025 to fall below 2%
• Inflationary pressures superimposed: Rising import costs are transmitted to the retail side (American consumers may face a new wave of price increases)
• Sino-US game escalation: China's trade surplus with the United States expanded by 12% year-on-year in January (the U.S. deficit accounted for over 40%)

IV. Policy Foresight: Trump's "Tariff Chain"

✅ Measures in effect：

• Mexico/Canada 25% tariff (March 4)
• 20% cumulative tariff on Chinese goods (10% base + 10% additional)

🚨 Future threats：

• Steel/aluminum tariffs may take full effect at the end of March (tax rate 25%, covering global imports)
• Automobile tariffs are "on the line" (German car companies may become the biggest losers)