Trump's tariff policy readjustment: Canada and Mexico are temporarily exempted until April 2, and the game between China and the United States continues to escalate

1. Dynamic adjustment of tariff policy

1. Exemption duration and subsequent threats
   US President Trump signed an executive order on March 9th, announcing the suspension of the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2nd, but simultaneously threatened that if the two countries failed to effectively crack down on the inflow of fentanyl into the United States, the "global reciprocal tariff" mechanism would be launched and the same tax rate would be imposed on all trading partners. This adjustment covers most goods under the framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but energy products still face an additional tariff of 10%.

2. Policies repeatedly trigger market shocks
   Since the tariffs came into effect on March 4, the three major U.S. stock indexes have continued to fall, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.78% and the Nasdaq index entering the correction range. Trump blamed "globalists" for the market downturn, but economists pointed out that the uncertainty of his policies directly led to the setback of investor confidence.

2. Response of North American trading partners

1. Canada: Delay countermeasures and precise exemptions
   Canada announced that it would postpone the C $12.5 billion retaliatory tariffs on American goods originally scheduled to be implemented on March 9 to April 2, and at the same time exempt key agricultural products such as potash fertilizer from tariffs. However, the Canadian side emphasized that the separate tax on energy products by the United States will still damage the stability of the North American supply chain.

2. Mexico: Negotiation Deadlock and Electricity Countermeasures
   Although Mexico and the United States have reached a temporary consensus on tariff exemption, Ontario plans to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity supply in three US states, highlighting potential cracks in North American energy cooperation.

3. Sino-US trade war continues to heat up

1. Increased tariffs on China and fentanyl charges
   Trump maintained the benchmark tariff of 20% on China and raised the surtax that took effect on February 4 to 20%. On the grounds of "fentanyl smuggling", it claimed that China, Mexico and Canada were responsible for drug abuse in the United States, and China made it clear that it would "resolutely counter" the pressure from the United States.

2. The risk of industrial chain decoupling intensifies
   U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said that Chinese manufacturers need to absorb tariff costs by themselves, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi refuted that the U.S. strategy of "coexistence of suppression and cooperation" was not feasible, indicating that Sino-U.S. trade friction may develop in the direction of comprehensive decoupling.

4. Industry impact and economic worries

• Automotive and energy industries differentiate: The automobile industry chain in the United States, Canada and Mexico has been temporarily given a respite due to temporary exemptions, but the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum will take effect on March 12. Canada, as the largest aluminum supplier to the United States, is facing heavy losses.
• Inflationary pressures and supply chain restructuring: Economists warn that repeated tariff policies will push up raw material costs, forcing companies to reassess the layout of North American production bases, and further exacerbating inflation risks.