2024 U.S. Christmas Sales Season Retail Sales Growth Analysis and Future Outlook

As the 2024 U.S. Christmas sales season draws to a close, the November retail sales data released by the Department of Commerce provides us with important information. In recent years, due to the prevalence of online shopping, the traditional Christmas sales season has been brought forward from December to October, and the Thanksgiving weekend in November and the subsequent Cyber Monday have pushed retail sales to a peak. Therefore, the November data is critical in assessing the performance of the entire sales season.

According to the latest data, excluding food consumption, retail sales in November increased by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than intended. Among them, the most eye-catching performers are automobiles and auto parts (up 6.5% year-on-year) and store-free retail (i.e. online shopping, up 9.8% year-on-year). The previously released data of "Black Friday" and Cyber Monday also confirmed the strong consumption power of online shopping. In contrast, brick-and-mortar store spending performed less than expected, with a year-over-year decline over the Thanksgiving weekend. This is mainly because the heavy snow weather in the northeastern United States has affected travel, but the more fundamental reason is that consumers are increasingly relying on the convenience of online shopping.

Specifically, look at the performance of each category:

• Furniture and Home: Only a slight increase year-over-year and sequential, and actual sales volume may have declined considering inflation.
• Electrical appliances: It also shows a slight increase trend, and actual sales may also be declining.
• Clothing category: Sales volume remained stable with no obvious change.
• Department store consumption: decreased month-on-month, increased slightly year-on-year, and the overall performance was mediocre.

E-commerce consumption has almost become the only bright spot. Faced with persistent inflationary pressures, importers have been cautious in inventory control. The latest inventory-to-sales ratio in October was slightly higher than the same period last year, but the inventory-to-sales ratio of furniture, home furnishings and electrical appliances, which are the main force of goods volume, was lower than that of October last year. Building materials and gardening tools also showed a similar trend. This suggests importers are cautiously optimistic about sales volumes and the market is performing in line with intended.

This year, the overall cargo volume of the US line increased significantly year-on-year, but it did not get out of control. Global Port Tracker forecasts a 14.4% year-over-year increase in November and a 14.3% increase in December as well. Total U.S. seaborne imports are expected to reach 25.6 million TEU in 2024, up 14.8% from last year. January 2025 will rise by 12% year-on-year, fall by 4.1% in February due to the impact of the Lunar New Year, return to the growth track in March, rise by 12.7% year-on-year, and increase by 6.6% in April.

However, uncertainty remains surrounding these projections. The biggest uncontrollable factor is the possible Trump 2.0 tariff policy. Compared with the Trump 1.0 period, the industry is more calm about this, and there is no crazy shipment wave of tariff grabbing. Once the Trump 2.0 tariff situation becomes clear, the pace of shipments next year may be disrupted.

Furthermore, from 1 February 2025, new schedules will officially begin for two major new alliances: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini and the Premier Alliance of ONE, HMM and YML. The new alliance routes involve the dispatch of hundreds of ships on major east-west routes around the world. If it happens to catch up with the unexpected wave of tariff-rushing shipments, maintaining the stability of shipping schedules will face huge challenges.

To sum up, 2025 will be a year full of variables. Whether it is tariff policy or changes in shipping alliances, it will have a profound impact on the retail and logistics industries in the United States.